1943 On the farm
When I was a little boy we moved to a farm from the city. It was all new to me. Cows, pigs, horses, chickens were all new acquaintances. I began to notice sounds, smells, and many new experiences. We had a “swimming pool” on our farm – though my step-father called it a cow tank.
I noticed over a period of time, that every morning the rooster would crow and then the sun would rise. Every day the same events: crowing rooster followed by sunrise. I came to believe that the rooster’s crowing caused the sun to rise. After all I had lots of facts to draw on to establish “evidence”.
But then one night for supper Mom served chicken. It was good but kinda tough.
The next morning there was no crowing rooster!
But the sun came up. Causal relation destroyed. Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc.
And if you get inspired then consider:
Call for participants: Expertise, evidence and argumentation in the context of public policy-making
3-4 March, 2016
ArgLab, New University of Lisbon, Portugal